Has the threat of a possible Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities increased?
Yolanda Nile
Apart from the United States, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates also participated in the exercises held in Israel
A few days ago, in the deep blue waters of the Red Sea, the Israeli, Emirati and Bahraini navies participated for the first time in joint war games with a US warship.
Prior to the exercises, a joint air war games of seven countries, including Israel, were held last month at a desert airbase north of the Israeli city of Eilat.
At the end of the Israeli air drills, two Israeli warplanes accompanied an American warplane that had a bomb that could hit underground installations until it left the country's airspace.
The exercises are being seen as a warning to Iran, which has been conducting large-scale military exercises in recent days.
This development comes at a time when there is growing concern in Israel that it will not be left alone if possible action is to be taken against Iran's nuclear program.
It should be noted that the Israeli government has allocated 1.5 billion US dollars to prepare for a possible attack on Iran's nuclear program, while warning messages are also being issued by the Israeli political and military authorities on an almost daily basis.
What is going to happen in the future?
I asked the analysts who were reviewing Iran what was going to happen.
An Israeli security official told me that Israel had no interest in fighting Iran, but that we would not allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons. "Given the progress of Iran's nuclear program, we are preparing for all possibilities, including military options."
The threat of aggression comes at a time when talks are set to begin on November 29 in the Austrian capital, Vienna, to reactivate the 2005 nuclear deal between Iran and the five world powers. The United States will also be indirectly involved.
Under the agreement, Iran agreed to limit its nuclear program and inspect all of its facilities, in response to which international sanctions on Iran were partially lifted. US President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from the agreement in 2018.
On the other hand, the history of renegotiating the nuclear deal comes at a time when Iran has announced that 25 kilograms of uranium has been enriched to 60 percent (somewhat beyond the level of nuclear weapons). While less than 210 kg of uranium has been enriched by 20%.
Iran has repeatedly insisted that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, but experts also say that such a large amount of uranium has been enriched only in nuclear-weapon states.
According to the Israeli security official, Iran is closer to developing the materials needed to make nuclear weapons than ever before, and this fact is of great importance to Israel.
Israel believes Iran could develop enriched uranium for nuclear weapons in a month if it so chooses.
Some facts about the Iranian nuclear crisis
The world powers do not trust Iran. Some countries believe that Iran wants to acquire nuclear power to make a nuclear bomb, but Iran denies this.
That's why the agreement was reached: In 2015, Iran and six other countries reached a landmark agreement under which Iran promised to limit its nuclear program on condition that economic sanctions be lifted.
What's the matter now After US President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from the agreement, economic sanctions were re-imposed on Iran, after which Iran's nuclear program was resumed. Now that the new US president, Joe Biden, wants to be part of the deal again, Iran and the United States want him to take the initiative.
In order to build a nuclear weapon, Iran would have to develop a warhead for ballistic missiles. According to experts, this may take 18 to 24 months.
Israel is said to be pursuing a policy of maintaining ambiguity at the official level despite acquiring nuclear power, and considers nuclear-armed Iran a threat to its very existence. On the other hand, Iran does not recognize the state of Israel, while Iranian officials often give the impression that the state of Israel will eventually end.
The United States and the Gulf Arab states, with which Israel is strengthening ties, are also opposed to Iran's acquisition of nuclear weapons. It is difficult to say, however, if war breaks out between Israel and Iran, to what extent these countries will be part of it because they have their own interests.
Yakov Amidror, a former Israeli national security adviser, first began talking about Iran's nuclear program in 1990.
His analysis of the latest developments is that Israel cannot live in a situation where Iran is getting closer and closer to building a nuclear bomb, so it will have to decide soon what to do to stop it.
"I think the only way to stop Iran is to destroy its nuclear facilities, because Iran is not going to back down from becoming a nuclear power, after which it will become more aggressive than before."
It should be noted that Israel has twice before attacked its opponents' nuclear facilities. Israel has not retaliated since the 1981 attacks on Iraq and the 2007 attacks on Syria.
According to analysts, it will not be easy to do so against Iran because Iran's program is not only more sophisticated but also consists of a number of facilities, some of which are underground.
According to Yakov Amidror, Israeli decision-makers know that the consequences of an attack on Iran could be complex.
Iran has announced a "shocking" response to any attack on its nuclear facilities. It is thought that in the event of a possible attack, Iran will not only use its forces but also retaliate with its armed allies in the region, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, armed groups in Syria and Iraq, and Yemeni rebels. Gaza militants, including the Houthi movement, may be involved
Despite all these threats, some in Israel believe that there is nothing wrong with risking an attack if Iran's nuclear program can be pushed back even a few years.
At the official level, Israel still seems to prefer to find a solution through peaceful negotiations.
Seema Shen, a former head of Mossad's research unit, says she hopes the diplomacy will succeed, but is not optimistic at the moment.
The administration of US President Joe Biden has suggested to Iran that the old agreement be implemented instead of new talks, but the Israeli government opposes this proposal.
Under the old nuclear deal, many sanctions on Iran's nuclear program would be lifted by 2025, with no restrictions on Iran's ballistic missile program or Iran's support for militant groups in the region.
Seema Shen, now head of the Israeli Institute for Iran's Program, says that in her analysis, Iran no longer wants to go back to its old position.
"Iran certainly wants economic sanctions to be eased and they know that they will have to pay something in return, but the real question is what is the current state of their economy in Iran and to what extent?" Need help? '
Seema Shen says that by taking the path of dialogue and negotiation, Iran is gaining time to enable its nuclear program to become a weapon.
"Threats to attack Iran's nuclear facilities do not carry weight"
Alex Watanka, an expert on Iranian affairs at the Middle East Institute in Washington, says Iran's nuclear program is ideological, but at the moment, despite distrust of the United States and European countries, Iran wants to implement the old agreement because of its economic difficulties. According to him, it is not necessary that Iran wants to build a nuclear weapon.
"It's definitely an option for Iran that they want to have, but will they use the nuclear program to make weapons?" It is not necessary, but they want Iran to become a nuclear power in order to send a message to the United States that the government cannot be removed. "
Alex Vitanka does not downplay Israeli threats of an attack on Iran's nuclear program. In his view, Israel's covert efforts could be more effective in thwarting Iran's nuclear progress.
"Israel has proven that it has secretly infiltrated Iran to a large extent and has access to information."
A decade ago, reports of a joint US-Israeli plot to attack Iranian nuclear facilities using the Stuxnet computer virus surfaced.
Iran recently blamed Israel for the dramatic assassination of its top nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizada, who was killed by a remote-controlled gun by artificial intelligence near Tehran. Iran has also accused Israel of damaging its nuclear facilities through bombings.
Under the "war between wars" policy, Israel has carried out a number of attacks aimed at thwarting Iran's growing dominance in Syria, while also blocking the transfer of weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
What's going to happen next? International affairs experts disagree on this question, but there is a consensus that Iran's nuclear weapons talks are taking place at a crucial time, with far-reaching consequences for the region.
If Iran develops a nuclear weapon, then other powers in the region, including Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt, will try to follow suit.
The United States has said it wants an end to the ongoing war in the Middle East, but has said it will use all options available to Iran.
The paradox of this whole crisis is that analysts say that the best way to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon is through serious military action.